The point in every baseball season

This is the point in every baseball season at which things begin to feel real. In the coming days, we'll see fewer guys wearing No. 75 on the mound. We'll see starting pitchers face four, even five innings worth of batters. We'll see veteran hitters play through the excruciating injuries -- sore earlobes, scratched cleats -- that have been cause for days off in spring training's early weeks. And, somewhere along the line, we'll start saying things like, "You know, if Zach Duke could just give the Pirates 15 wins, this team could very well win the division."

At times like this, it's useful to think about money. Not payrolls -- your own money. Because there's no better way to sort through the delusions of spring baseball and find teams that really might contend than by asking the simple question: "Would you bet on that?"

Now, I'm not condoning gambling, and I'm certainly not suggesting you hop on the next flight to Vegas and put the mortgage on any of these numbers. But I would say that the best way to pick darkhorse championship possibilities is by looking at the upcoming season's World Series odds and seeing which teams you think might be worth dropping a sawbuck on. Give it a shot (I pulled these odds off the Internet, by the way):

Rank. Team Odds
1. Boston Red Sox 7/2
2. New York Mets 4/1
3. New York Yankees 5/1
3. Detroit Tigers 5/1
5. Cleveland Indians 10/1
5. Los Angeles Angels 10/1
7. Chicago Cubs 12/1
8. Philadelphia Phillies 20/1
9. Arizona Diamondbacks 22/1
10. Chicago White Sox 25/1
10. Colorado Rockies 25/1
10. Los Angeles Dodgers 25/1
10. San Diego Padres 25/1
10. Seattle Mariners 25/1
15. Milwaukee Brewers 30/1
15. Atlanta Braves 30/1
15. Toronto Blue Jays 30/1
18. Minnesota Twins 40/1
18. St Louis Cardinals 40/1
20. Cincinnati Reds 50/1
21. Houston Astros 60/1
22. Oakland Athletics 65/1
23. Texas Rangers 100/1
23. San Francisco Giants 100/1
25. Baltimore Orioles 150/1
25. Florida Marlins 150/1
25. Tampa Bay Rays 150/1
28. Kansas City Royals 200/1
28. Pittsburgh Pirates 200/1
28. Washington Nationals 200/1

Obviously, teams like the Red Sox and Mets are the favorites, but picking the favorites is easy and hardly worth the 10 bucks. Try to find some teams that are undervalued, that can give the best return. I've got three in mind ...

Arizona. With or without Randy Johnson, this team has an imposing rotation. There isn't a better 1-2 punch in baseball than Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, and with those guys at the top of the playoff rotation, Arizona would be brutal to face in October. Getting to the playoffs might be a problem, though. The bullpen has been reshuffled, with Jose Valverde gone to Houston and Brandon Lyon taking over closing duties. The offense was plain bad last year, as their .321 on-base percentage ranked last in the N.L., and the West is a very tough division. But at 22/1, I'll take 'em.

Toronto. If you're going to pick the Blue Jays to even reach the postseason, you're essentially saying that the team can beat out either the Yankees or Red Sox in the East, the Indians or Tigers in the Central and the Mariners or Angels in the West. They can. They've got to stay healthy to do so, though, and that is a tall order for a team counting on David Eckstein, Scott Rolen and soon-to-be 40-year-old Frank Thomas. But if Alex Rios continues to ascend and Vernon Wells comes back after an awful year, the team's offense could finally catch up to its strength -- the little-known pitching staff, which was second in the A.L. last year with a 4.00 ERA. Youngsters Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch give the team depth behind Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, and the bullpen is stocked with great arms. The Jays at 30/1 sounds good to me.

San Francisco. What? The Giants? Well, yeah. There isn't much chance they'll actually win the World Series, but that's why they call them longshots. The Giants are listed at 100/1 and when you get a load of their decaying lineup, you can see why. But there are good vibes in post-Barry Bonds camp these days, and I expect that this team will play over its head for a while. They need to make the trade for Joe Crede at third, and they'll need a bounce-back year from Ray Durham. It'd be nice if they could inject some youth with outfielder Nate Schierholtz and infielder Kevin Frandsen, too. But the strength is the team's top-notch young pitchers -- even with Noah Lowry out for the first month -- who could put the Giants in a better position than most think.